Moldova 1–1 Luxembourg: Result & Stats

Moldova

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Luxembourg

Radu Gînsari 58' (pen)

Stefano Bensi 70'

11/18/2018

UEFA Nations League · League D - 6Zimbru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Moldova29%

×Draw27%

Luxembourg44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoldovaExpected goals in this matchLuxembourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.37

Moldova

1.05

Luxembourg

1.37

Luxembourg creates 30% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

1.18

creates per match

1.38

1.36

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Moldova

1.18

Luxembourg

1.38

allows per match

Moldova

1.36

Luxembourg

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moldova+0.00on par

Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moldova ↓

Luxembourg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Moldova or draw

56%

Moldova or Luxembourg

73%

Draw or Luxembourg

71%

Winning margin

Moldova wins by 2+

11%

Luxembourg wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Moldova 1+ goals

65%

Moldova 2+ goals

28%

Moldova 3+ goals

9%

Luxembourg 1+ goals

75%

Luxembourg 2+ goals

40%

Luxembourg 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Moldova (draw refunded)

39%

Luxembourg (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moldova at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Luxembourg away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moldova attack 1.18 + Luxembourg defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.05

Luxembourg attack 1.38 + Moldova defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Moldova scores more

29%

level

27%

Luxembourg scores more

44%

Luxembourg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Leandro Barreiro

31'

Olivier Thill← Chris Philipps

39'

Oleg Reabciuk

56'

Maxime Chanot

58'

Radu GînsariPenalty

59'

Danel Sinani← Florian Bohnert

64'

Cătălin Carp

70'

Stefano Bensi

71'

Vitalie Damașcan← Vitalie Damașcan

82'

Alexandru Dedov← Radu Gînsari

82'

David Turpel← Stefano Bensi

83'

Eugeniu Cebotaru← Aleksandr Gațcan

87'

Alexandru Antoniuc

Moldova4-4-2

Luxembourg4-3-3

9

Mota

22

Joachim

11

⚽

▼

Bensi

16

Barreiro

6

▼

Philipps

5

Bohnert

13

3

2

18

1

77

2

Reabciuk

6

5

15

7

4

8

▼

Gațcan

17

Antoniuc

11

⚽

▼

Gînsari

21

▼

Damașcan

Manager: A. Spiridon

71'▲—←▼Vitalie Damașcan

82'▲Alexandru Dedov←▼Radu Gînsari

83'▲Eugeniu Cebotaru←▼Aleksandr Gațcan

Moldova substitutes

1Namasco12Paşcenco3Racu14Rozgoniuc13Graur22Nicolaescu9Cebotaru16Sandu18Anton20Cociuc10Dedov19Boiciuc

Manager: L. Holtz

31'▲Olivier Thill←▼Chris Philipps

59'▲Danel Sinani←▼Florian Bohnert

82'▲David Turpel←▼Stefano Bensi

Luxembourg substitutes

12Schon23Kips4Hall7Gerson10Skenderović14Sinani15Thill17Mutsch19Janisch20Turpel21Deville

UEFA Nations League: Moldova 1–1 Luxembourg

Moldova and Luxembourg drew 1-1 in UEFA Nations League on November 18, 2018.

Goals: Radu Gînsari (58' pen), Stefano Bensi (70').

The match was played at Zimbru in Chisinau.

Moldova vs Luxembourg — UEFA Nations League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Nations League: Moldova 1–1 Luxembourg