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Moldova vs Congo — Friendlies 2026

Moldova
Moldova
CANC
00:00
Congo
Congo
5/31/2018FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Kufstein-Arena (Kufstein)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Moldova27%
×Draw27%
Congo46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moldova
1.00
Congo
1.40

Congo creates 40% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Moldova
1.00
Congo
0.80

allows per match

Moldova
2.00
Congo
1.00

finishing

Moldova+0.00on par
Congo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moldova ↓

Congo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Moldova or draw
54%
Moldova or Congo
73%
Draw or Congo
73%

Winning margin

Moldova wins by 2+
10%
Congo wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Moldova 1+ goals
63%
Moldova 2+ goals
26%
Moldova 3+ goals
8%
Congo 1+ goals
75%
Congo 2+ goals
41%
Congo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Moldova (draw refunded)
37%
Congo (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moldova at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

Congo away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moldova attack 1.00 + Congo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Congo attack 0.80 + Moldova defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Moldova scores more
27%
level
27%
Congo scores more
46%

Congo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Congo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Moldova host Congo

May 31, 2018: Moldova take on Congo in Friendlies. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Moldova host Congo at Kufstein-Arena (Kufstein).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.