Moldova 1–2 Azerbaijan: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Moldova

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Azerbaijan

N. Moțpan 90+2'

A. Isaev 42'

E. Mahmudov 28'

11/16/2022

Friendlies · Friendlies 2Stadionul Zimbru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Moldova28%

×Draw25%

Azerbaijan47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoldovaExpected goals in this matchAzerbaijan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.61

Moldova

1.19

Azerbaijan

1.61

Azerbaijan creates 35% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

1.00

creates per match

1.23

2.00

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Moldova

1.00

Azerbaijan

1.23

allows per match

Moldova

2.00

Azerbaijan

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moldova+0.00on par

Azerbaijan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moldova ↓

Azerbaijan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Moldova or draw

53%

Moldova or Azerbaijan

75%

Draw or Azerbaijan

72%

Winning margin

Moldova wins by 2+

11%

Azerbaijan wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Moldova 1+ goals

70%

Moldova 2+ goals

33%

Moldova 3+ goals

12%

Azerbaijan 1+ goals

80%

Azerbaijan 2+ goals

48%

Azerbaijan 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Moldova (draw refunded)

37%

Azerbaijan (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moldova at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

Azerbaijan away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moldova attack 1.00 + Azerbaijan defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Azerbaijan attack 1.23 + Moldova defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Moldova scores more

28%

level

25%

Azerbaijan scores more

47%

Azerbaijan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Azerbaijan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

E. Mahmudov

29'

V. Rata

42'

A. Isaev

46'

V. Postolachi← E. Cociuc

46'

M. Emreli← O. Kökçü

66'

N. Moțpan← M. Caimacov

66'

V. Stînă← V. Damaşcan

66'

E. Camalov← R. Almeyda

66'

R. Dadaşov← M. Qurbanlı

84'

M. Plătică← A. Ioniţă

84'

N. Cleșcenco← V. Raţă

84'

N. Ələsgərov← R. Şeydayev

84'

A. Nuriyev← E. Cəfərquliyev

84'

A. Salahlı← E. Mahmudov

90'

O. Reabciuk

90+1'

E. Balayev

90+2'

N. Moțpan

Possession

Shots

Statistics

MoldovaAzerbaijan

Overview

40%Possession60%

6Total Shots12

6Corners1

8Fouls7

Shots

6Total Shots12

3On Target3

1Off Target7

2Blocked2

Passing

40%Possession60%

Goalkeeping

5Saves10

Discipline

8Fouls7

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0