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Moldova vs Albania — Euro Championship 2024

Moldova
Moldova
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Albania
Albania
R. Manaj 90'
L. Trashi 40'
K. Bare 34'
S. Cikalleshi 22'
10/14/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 8Stadionul Zimbru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Moldova14%
×Draw19%
Albania67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moldova
0.96
Albania
2.29

Albania creates 139% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Moldova
0.50
Albania
1.57

allows per match

Moldova
3.00
Albania
1.43

finishing

Moldova+0.00on par
Albania+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moldova ↓

Albania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Moldova or draw
33%
Moldova or Albania
81%
Draw or Albania
86%

Winning margin

Moldova wins by 2+
5%
Albania wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Moldova 1+ goals
62%
Moldova 2+ goals
25%
Moldova 3+ goals
7%
Albania 1+ goals
90%
Albania 2+ goals
66%
Albania 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Moldova (draw refunded)
18%
Albania (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moldova at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Albania away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moldova attack 0.50 + Albania defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 0.96

Albania attack 1.57 + Moldova defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Moldova scores more
14%
level
19%
Albania scores more
67%

Albania at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Albania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
L. TrashiAlbaniaAlbania · M
8.2

Match Events

22'
S. Cikalleshi
29'
Victor Mudrac
31'
A. Rozgoniuc← V. Mudrac
34'
K. Bare
38'
Dinu Graur
40'
L. Trashi
46'
Keidi Bare
57'
Sokol Cikalleshi
58'
Eugeniu Cebotaru
60'
A. Boiciuc← A. Suvorov
62'
Oleg Reabciuk
76'
O. Roshi← S. Cikalleshi
80'
C. Sandu← E. Sidorenco
81'
Anatolie Prepelita
82'
Klaus Gjasula
89'
L. Selahi← K. Bare
89'
M. Kumbulla← A. Ismajli
90'
R. Manaj↳ O. Roshi

Possession

31%Moldova

Shots

6Moldova

Pass accuracy

44%Moldova

Statistics

MoldovaAlbania
Overview
31%Possession69%
6Total Shots15
0Corners4
16Fouls13
Shots
6Total Shots15
1On Target7
4Off Target5
1Blocked3
2Inside Box10
4Outside Box5
Passing
31%Possession69%
274Total Passes636
185Accurate Passes539
68%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
16Fouls13
5Yellow Cards3
2Offsides3

Euro Championship: Moldova 0–4 Albania

Albania beat Moldova 4-0 in Euro Championship on October 14, 2019.

Goals: S. Cikalleshi (22'), K. Bare (34'), L. Trashi (40'), R. Manaj (90').

Albania controlled possession (69%) and registered 15 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadionul Zimbru in Chişinău.