Moldova U19 0–2 Northern Ireland U19

Moldova U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Northern Ireland U19

C. Scannell 84'

C. Marshall 72'

9/27/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 6Sportpark Marsdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Moldova U1933%

×Draw31%

Northern Ireland U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moldova U19Expected goals in this matchNorthern Ireland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.00

Moldova U19

0.96

Northern Ireland U19

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

1.00

creates per match

0.67

1.33

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Moldova U19

1.00

Northern Ireland U19

0.67

allows per match

Moldova U19

1.33

Northern Ireland U19

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moldova U19+0.00on par

Northern Ireland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moldova U19 ↓

Northern Ireland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Moldova U19 or draw

65%

Moldova U19 or Northern Ireland U19

69%

Draw or Northern Ireland U19

67%

Winning margin

Moldova U19 wins by 2+

12%

Northern Ireland U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Moldova U19 1+ goals

62%

Moldova U19 2+ goals

25%

Moldova U19 3+ goals

7%

Northern Ireland U19 1+ goals

63%

Northern Ireland U19 2+ goals

26%

Northern Ireland U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Moldova U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Northern Ireland U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moldova U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Northern Ireland U19 away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moldova U19 attack 1.00 + Northern Ireland U19 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Northern Ireland U19 attack 0.67 + Moldova U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Moldova U19 scores more

33%

level

31%

Northern Ireland U19 scores more

35%

Northern Ireland U19 at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Northern Ireland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

31'

41'

60'

60'

65'

65'

67'

V. Lupascu

72'

C. Marshall

77'

V. Costin

81'

R. Evans← C. Marshall

81'

R. Morgan← B. Spencer

84'

N. Covalschi← M. Scutaru

84'

C. Scannell

86'

D. Robinson

90+2'

R. Oudnie-Morgan

90+6'

A. Gau

Moldova

Northern

1

Clarke

2

▼

Spencer

5

Forbes

3

Carson

10

⚽

17

6

15

4

7

9

⚽

▼

12

6

2

3

7

▼

20

15

19

10

13

17

▼

Scutaru

Manager: A. Guzun

65'▲V. Lupașco←▼I. Bejan

84'▲N. Covalschi←▼M. Scutaru

Moldova U19 substitutes

9Lupașco16Covalschi8Sajin11Mănăscurtă4Morozan18Chioroglo1Dodon14Luchiță

Manager: G. Lyttle

81'▲R. Evans←▼C. Marshall

81'▲R. Morgan←▼B. Spencer

Northern Ireland U19 substitutes

20Evans18Morgan14McCallion8Sloan13Roney16Trickett11Kirk19Glenfield12McMullan