Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Moldova U19 vs Kosovo U19 — Friendlies 2018

Moldova U19
Moldova U19
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Kosovo U19
Kosovo U19
Unknown 90', 84', 9'
Unknown 76', 42', 3', 2'
9/6/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Moldova U1932%
×Draw25%
Kosovo U1943%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moldova U19
1.25
Kosovo U19
1.50

Kosovo U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Moldova U19
1.50
Kosovo U19
1.25

allows per match

Moldova U19
1.75
Kosovo U19
1.00

finishing

Moldova U19+0.00on par
Kosovo U19+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moldova U19 ↓

Kosovo U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Moldova U19 or draw
57%
Moldova U19 or Kosovo U19
75%
Draw or Kosovo U19
68%

Winning margin

Moldova U19 wins by 2+
13%
Kosovo U19 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Moldova U19 1+ goals
71%
Moldova U19 2+ goals
36%
Moldova U19 3+ goals
13%
Kosovo U19 1+ goals
78%
Kosovo U19 2+ goals
44%
Kosovo U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Moldova U19 (draw refunded)
42%
Kosovo U19 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moldova U19 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Kosovo U19 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moldova U19 attack 1.50 + Kosovo U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kosovo U19 attack 1.25 + Moldova U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Moldova U19 scores more
32%
level
25%
Kosovo U19 scores more
43%

Kosovo U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kosovo U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
3'
9'
42'
76'
84'
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Moldova U19 3–4 Kosovo U19

Kosovo U19 beat Moldova U19 4-3 in Friendlies on September 6, 2025.

Goals: ? (2', 3', 9', 42', 76', 84', 90').