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Moldova U19 vs Estonia U19 — Friendlies 2026

Moldova U19
Moldova U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Estonia U19
Estonia U19
A. Sprinsean 90'
S. Roman 86'
M. Kalimullin 19'
3/26/2024FriendliesFriendlies · World: Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Moldova U1942%
×Draw24%
Estonia U1935%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moldova U19
1.65
Estonia U19
1.48

Moldova U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Moldova U19
1.50
Estonia U19
1.20

allows per match

Moldova U19
1.75
Estonia U19
1.80

finishing

Moldova U19+0.00on par
Estonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moldova U19 ↓

Estonia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Moldova U19 or draw
65%
Moldova U19 or Estonia U19
76%
Draw or Estonia U19
58%

Winning margin

Moldova U19 wins by 2+
21%
Estonia U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Moldova U19 1+ goals
81%
Moldova U19 2+ goals
49%
Moldova U19 3+ goals
23%
Estonia U19 1+ goals
77%
Estonia U19 2+ goals
43%
Estonia U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Moldova U19 (draw refunded)
55%
Estonia U19 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moldova U19 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Estonia U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moldova U19 attack 1.50 + Estonia U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.65

Estonia U19 attack 1.20 + Moldova U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Moldova U19 scores more
42%
level
24%
Estonia U19 scores more
35%

Moldova U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Moldova U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
M. Kalimullin
56'
A. Sprinsean← A. Sprinsean
66'
I. Sava← I. Sava
72'
S. Tovstik← S. Tovstik
72'
T. Varjund← T. Varjund
86'
S. Roman
90'
A. Sprinsean

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Moldova U19 2–1 Estonia U19

Moldova U19 beat Estonia U19 2-1 in Friendlies on March 26, 2024.

Goals: M. Kalimullin (19'), S. Roman (86'), A. Sprinsean (90').