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Moldova U19 vs Cyprus U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Moldova U19
Moldova U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Cyprus U19
Cyprus U19
11/16/2021UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 8Shefayim National Team Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Moldova U1949%
×Draw26%
Cyprus U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moldova U19
1.46
Cyprus U19
0.96

Moldova U19 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

Moldova U19
1.00
Cyprus U19
0.58

allows per match

Moldova U19
1.33
Cyprus U19
1.92

finishing

Moldova U19+0.00on par
Cyprus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moldova U19 ↓

Cyprus U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Moldova U19 or draw
75%
Moldova U19 or Cyprus U19
74%
Draw or Cyprus U19
51%

Winning margin

Moldova U19 wins by 2+
24%
Cyprus U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Moldova U19 1+ goals
77%
Moldova U19 2+ goals
43%
Moldova U19 3+ goals
18%
Cyprus U19 1+ goals
62%
Cyprus U19 2+ goals
25%
Cyprus U19 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Moldova U19 (draw refunded)
66%
Cyprus U19 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moldova U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Cyprus U19 away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moldova U19 attack 1.00 + Cyprus U19 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cyprus U19 attack 0.58 + Moldova U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Moldova U19 scores more
49%
level
26%
Cyprus U19 scores more
25%

Moldova U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Moldova U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Moldova U19 2–2 Cyprus U19

Moldova U19 and Cyprus U19 drew 2-2 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 16, 2021.

The match was played at Shefayim National Team Complex in Shefayim.