Moldova U19 0–2 Bulgaria U19: Result & Stats

Moldova U19

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bulgaria U19

M. Dimitrov 88'

S. Stoyanchov 41'

10/14/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Moldova U1927%

×Draw25%

Bulgaria U1948%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moldova U19Expected goals in this matchBulgaria U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.54

Moldova U19

1.08

Bulgaria U19

1.54

Bulgaria U19 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

1.33

1.75

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Moldova U19

1.50

Bulgaria U19

1.33

allows per match

Moldova U19

1.75

Bulgaria U19

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moldova U19+0.00on par

Bulgaria U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moldova U19 ↓

Bulgaria U19 →

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Moldova U19 or draw

52%

Moldova U19 or Bulgaria U19

75%

Draw or Bulgaria U19

73%

Winning margin

Moldova U19 wins by 2+

10%

Bulgaria U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Moldova U19 1+ goals

66%

Moldova U19 2+ goals

29%

Moldova U19 3+ goals

10%

Bulgaria U19 1+ goals

79%

Bulgaria U19 2+ goals

45%

Bulgaria U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Moldova U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Bulgaria U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Moldova U19 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Bulgaria U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Moldova U19 attack 1.50 + Bulgaria U19 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Bulgaria U19 attack 1.33 + Moldova U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Moldova U19 scores more

27%

level

25%

Bulgaria U19 scores more

48%

Bulgaria U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bulgaria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

S. Stoyanchov

88'

M. Dimitrov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff