Moldova U19 2–2 Azerbaijan U19: Result & Stats

Moldova U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Azerbaijan U19

O. David 90+7'

N. Sula 55'

H. Nazarov 45+1', 15'

11/19/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 7Stadionul Zimbru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Moldova U1957%

×Draw22%

Azerbaijan U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moldova U19Expected goals in this matchAzerbaijan U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.07

Moldova U19

1.91

Azerbaijan U19

1.07

Moldova U19 creates 79% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.00

creates per match

0.82

1.33

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

Moldova U19

1.00

Azerbaijan U19

0.82

allows per match

Moldova U19

1.33

Azerbaijan U19

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moldova U19+0.00on par

Azerbaijan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moldova U19 ↓

Azerbaijan U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Moldova U19 or draw

79%

Moldova U19 or Azerbaijan U19

78%

Draw or Azerbaijan U19

43%

Winning margin

Moldova U19 wins by 2+

33%

Azerbaijan U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Moldova U19 1+ goals

85%

Moldova U19 2+ goals

57%

Moldova U19 3+ goals

30%

Azerbaijan U19 1+ goals

66%

Azerbaijan U19 2+ goals

29%

Azerbaijan U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Moldova U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Azerbaijan U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moldova U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Azerbaijan U19 away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moldova U19 attack 1.00 + Azerbaijan U19 defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.91

Azerbaijan U19 attack 0.82 + Moldova U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Moldova U19 scores more

57%

level

22%

Azerbaijan U19 scores more

21%

Moldova U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Moldova U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

34'

45+1'

46'

55'

67'

M. Cȋrnaţ← A. Mardari

70'

I. Sava

70'

Ş. İbrahimov← N. Orucəli

78'

D. Dimitrișin← B. Musteață

85'

S. Roga← N. Sula

85'

S. Muradlı← M. Məmmədov

90+7'

S. Hashimov

90+8'

H. Nazarli

90+7'

O. David

Moldova

Azerbaijan

22

3

4

6

21

7

▼

Məmmədov

23

Əhmədzadə

17

Ramazanov

20

⚽2

Nazarov

5

Məmmədli

9

▼

1

5

2

17

4

⚽

David

8

▼

Mardari

18

Sosnovsch

10

▼

Musteață

7

Sprinsean

16

▼

Sîrbu

9

⚽

▼

Sula

Manager: S. Cebotari

46'▲I. Sava←▼D. Sîrbu

67'▲M. Cȋrnaţ←▼A. Mardari

78'▲D. Dimitrișin←▼B. Musteață

85'▲S. Roga←▼N. Sula

Moldova U19 substitutes

15Sava14Cȋrnaţ20Dimitrișin11Roga6Țap13Graminschii3Moșneagu19Chaaban12Socolov

Manager: E. Abdullayev

70'▲Ş. İbrahimov←▼N. Orucəli

85'▲S. Muradlı←▼M. Məmmədov

Azerbaijan U19 substitutes

11İbrahimov18Muradlı19Binyətzadə15Dünyamalıyev8Cəfərli1Məmmədzadə2Nəbiyev10Ələkbərli

Match Recap: Moldova U19 vs Azerbaijan U19

Moldova U19 and Azerbaijan U19 drew 2-2 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 19, 2024.

Goals: H. Nazarov (15', 45+1'), N. Sula (55'), O. David (90+7').

The match was played at Stadionul Zimbru in Chişinău.

Moldova U19 vs Azerbaijan U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Moldova U19 vs Azerbaijan U19