Moldova U17 0–1 Cyprus U17: Result & Stats

Moldova U17

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cyprus U17

11/1/2021

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 8Athlitikó Kéntro Svorónou Lázaros Xanthópoulos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Moldova U1712%

×Draw19%

Cyprus U1769%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moldova U17Expected goals in this matchCyprus U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.72

2.08

Moldova U17

0.72

Cyprus U17

2.08

Cyprus U17 creates 189% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

0.33

creates per match

1.50

2.67

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Moldova U17

0.33

Cyprus U17

1.50

allows per match

Moldova U17

2.67

Cyprus U17

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moldova U17+0.00on par

Cyprus U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moldova U17 ↓

Cyprus U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–113%

0–213%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Moldova U17 or draw

31%

Moldova U17 or Cyprus U17

81%

Draw or Cyprus U17

88%

Winning margin

Moldova U17 wins by 2+

3%

Cyprus U17 wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Moldova U17 1+ goals

51%

Moldova U17 2+ goals

16%

Moldova U17 3+ goals

4%

Cyprus U17 1+ goals

87%

Cyprus U17 2+ goals

61%

Cyprus U17 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Moldova U17 (draw refunded)

15%

Cyprus U17 (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moldova U17 at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Cyprus U17 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moldova U17 attack 0.33 + Cyprus U17 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.72

Cyprus U17 attack 1.50 + Moldova U17 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Moldova U17 scores more

12%

level

19%

Cyprus U17 scores more

69%

Cyprus U17 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Cyprus U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff