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Moldova U17 vs Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Moldova U17
Moldova U17
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
4/23/2026UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Group Stage - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Moldova U1723%
×Draw23%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U1755%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moldova U17
1.09
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
1.83

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Moldova U17
0.33
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
1.00

allows per match

Moldova U17
2.67
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
1.86

finishing

Moldova U17+0.00on par
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moldova U17 ↓

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Moldova U17 or draw
45%
Moldova U17 or Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
77%
Draw or Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
77%

Winning margin

Moldova U17 wins by 2+
8%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Moldova U17 1+ goals
66%
Moldova U17 2+ goals
30%
Moldova U17 3+ goals
10%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 1+ goals
84%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 2+ goals
54%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Moldova U17 (draw refunded)
29%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moldova U17 at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moldova U17 attack 0.33 + Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 attack 1.00 + Moldova U17 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Moldova U17 scores more
23%
level
23%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 scores more
55%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moldova U17 vs Bosnia-Herzegovina U17

Moldova U17 and Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 drew 0-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on April 23, 2026.