Molde W 4–1 KIL / Hemne W: Result & Stats

Molde W

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

KIL / Hemne W

5/10/2025

1. Division Women · Round 7Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Molde W64%

×Draw19%

KIL / Hemne W17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Molde WExpected goals in this matchKIL / Hemne W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.13

Molde W

2.33

KIL / Hemne W

1.13

Molde W creates 106% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 46 away

2.55

creates per match

1.07

1.18

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Molde W

2.55

KIL / Hemne W

1.07

allows per match

Molde W

1.18

KIL / Hemne W

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Molde W+0.00on par

KIL / Hemne W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde W ↓

KIL / Hemne W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Molde W or draw

83%

Molde W or KIL / Hemne W

81%

Draw or KIL / Hemne W

36%

Winning margin

Molde W wins by 2+

41%

KIL / Hemne W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Molde W 1+ goals

90%

Molde W 2+ goals

67%

Molde W 3+ goals

41%

KIL / Hemne W 1+ goals

68%

KIL / Hemne W 2+ goals

31%

KIL / Hemne W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Molde W (draw refunded)

79%

KIL / Hemne W (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde W at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

KIL / Hemne W away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.11 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde W attack 2.55 + KIL / Hemne W defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.33

KIL / Hemne W attack 1.07 + Molde W defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Molde W scores more

64%

level

19%

KIL / Hemne W scores more

17%

Molde W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Molde W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff