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Molde vs Sogndal — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Molde
Molde
FT
1 – 2
Sogndal
Sogndal
5/31/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Molde50%
×Draw23%
Sogndal26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molde
1.77
Sogndal
1.22

Molde creates 45% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 9 away

creates per match

Molde
2.32
Sogndal
1.33

allows per match

Molde
1.11
Sogndal
1.22

finishing

Molde+0.00on par
Sogndal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

Sogndal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Molde or draw
74%
Molde or Sogndal
77%
Draw or Sogndal
50%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+
27%
Sogndal wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals
83%
Molde 2+ goals
53%
Molde 3+ goals
26%
Sogndal 1+ goals
70%
Sogndal 2+ goals
34%
Sogndal 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)
66%
Sogndal (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Sogndal away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 2.32 + Sogndal defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sogndal attack 1.33 + Molde defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Molde scores more
50%
level
23%
Sogndal scores more
26%

Molde at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Molde 1 – 2 Sogndal

Sogndal beat Molde 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on May 31, 2020.

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.