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Molde vs Lillestrom — Eliteserien 2026

Molde
Molde
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Lillestrom
Lillestrom
11/12/2023EliteserienEliteserien · Round 28Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Molde61%
×Draw20%
Lillestrom19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molde
2.16
Lillestrom
1.13

Molde creates 91% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 89 away

creates per match

Molde
2.57
Lillestrom
1.22

allows per match

Molde
1.03
Lillestrom
1.75

finishing

Molde+0.00on par
Lillestrom+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

Lillestrom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Molde or draw
81%
Molde or Lillestrom
80%
Draw or Lillestrom
39%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+
38%
Lillestrom wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals
88%
Molde 2+ goals
63%
Molde 3+ goals
36%
Lillestrom 1+ goals
68%
Lillestrom 2+ goals
31%
Lillestrom 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)
76%
Lillestrom (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.03 · 119 matches

Lillestrom away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.75 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 2.57 + Lillestrom defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.16

Lillestrom attack 1.22 + Molde defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Molde scores more
61%
level
20%
Lillestrom scores more
19%

Molde at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Molde vs Lillestrom

Molde beat Lillestrom 4-0 in Eliteserien on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.