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Molde vs Larne — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Molde
Molde
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Larne
Larne
F. Ihler 90+5'
O. Brynhildsen 78'
M. Eikrem 51'
10/3/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Molde63%
×Draw23%
Larne15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molde
1.79
Larne
0.72

Molde creates 149% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

creates per match

Molde
2.14
Larne
0.36

allows per match

Molde
1.07
Larne
1.45

finishing

Molde+0.00on par
Larne+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

Larne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Molde or draw
85%
Molde or Larne
77%
Draw or Larne
37%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+
37%
Larne wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals
83%
Molde 2+ goals
53%
Molde 3+ goals
26%
Larne 1+ goals
51%
Larne 2+ goals
16%
Larne 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)
81%
Larne (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Larne away — creates 0.36, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 2.14 + Larne defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.79

Larne attack 0.36 + Molde defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Molde scores more
63%
level
23%
Larne scores more
15%

Molde at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
C. ØyvannMoldeMolde · D
8.3

Match Events

18'
Sam Todd
45+1'
H. Stenevik← M. Linnes
46'
K. Eriksen← E. Breivik
51'
M. Eikrem↳ K. Eriksen
66'
M. Møller Dæhli← M. Kaasa
72'
Magnus Wolff Eikrem
78'
O. Brynhildsen
79'
C. McKendry← J. McEneff
79'
M. Randall← G. Marsh
80'
E. Hestad← M. Eikrem
80'
F. Ihler← O. Brynhildsen
86'
M. Lusty← A. Ryan
86'
B. Magee← D. Sloan
88'
Mads Enggård
90'
Conor McKendry
90+5'
F. Ihler

Possession

67%Molde

Shots

17Molde

Pass accuracy

54%Molde

Statistics

MoldeLarne
Overview
67%Possession33%
17Total Shots4
2.42Expected Goals (xG)0.12
7Corners0
12Fouls10
Shots
17Total Shots4
9On Target1
5Off Target1
3Blocked2
14Inside Box0
3Outside Box4
Passing
67%Possession33%
757Total Passes377
674Accurate Passes286
89%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
-1.41Goals Prevented-1.41
Discipline
12Fouls10
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Molde vs Larne

Molde beat Larne 3-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on October 3, 2024.

Goals: M. Eikrem (51'), O. Brynhildsen (78'), F. Ihler (90+5').

Molde controlled possession (67%) and registered 17 shots to 4.

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.