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Molde vs Ham-Kam — Eliteserien 2026

Molde
Molde
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam
8/25/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 20Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Molde42%
×Draw24%
Ham-Kam34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molde
1.57
Ham-Kam
1.38

Molde creates 14% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Molde
1.47
Ham-Kam
1.39

allows per match

Molde
1.36
Ham-Kam
1.68

finishing

Molde+0.70scores more
Ham-Kam-0.39scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

Ham-Kam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Molde or draw
66%
Molde or Ham-Kam
76%
Draw or Ham-Kam
58%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+
21%
Ham-Kam wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals
79%
Molde 2+ goals
46%
Molde 3+ goals
21%
Ham-Kam 1+ goals
75%
Ham-Kam 2+ goals
40%
Ham-Kam 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)
56%
Ham-Kam (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.36 · 6 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.68 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 1.47 + Ham-Kam defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.57

Ham-Kam attack 1.39 + Molde defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Molde scores more
42%
level
24%
Ham-Kam scores more
34%

Molde at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eliteserien: Molde 3–0 Ham-Kam

Molde beat Ham-Kam 3-0 in Eliteserien on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.