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Molde U19 vs Hamilton Academical U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Molde U19
Molde U19
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hamilton Academical U19
Hamilton Academical U19
10/3/2023UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · 1st RoundAker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Molde U1954%
×Draw21%
Hamilton Academical U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molde U19
2.04
Hamilton Academical U19
1.33

Molde U19 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Molde U19
1.75
Hamilton Academical U19
0.67

allows per match

Molde U19
2.00
Hamilton Academical U19
2.33

finishing

Molde U19+0.00on par
Hamilton Academical U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde U19 ↓

Hamilton Academical U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Molde U19 or draw
75%
Molde U19 or Hamilton Academical U19
79%
Draw or Hamilton Academical U19
46%

Winning margin

Molde U19 wins by 2+
32%
Hamilton Academical U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Molde U19 1+ goals
87%
Molde U19 2+ goals
60%
Molde U19 3+ goals
33%
Hamilton Academical U19 1+ goals
74%
Hamilton Academical U19 2+ goals
38%
Hamilton Academical U19 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Molde U19 (draw refunded)
68%
Hamilton Academical U19 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde U19 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Hamilton Academical U19 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde U19 attack 1.75 + Hamilton Academical U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.04

Hamilton Academical U19 attack 0.67 + Molde U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Molde U19 scores more
54%
level
21%
Hamilton Academical U19 scores more
25%

Molde U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Molde U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Molde U19 3 – 0 Hamilton Academical U19

Molde U19 beat Hamilton Academical U19 3-0 in UEFA Youth League on October 3, 2023.

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.