Molde II 4–0 Raufoss II: Result & Stats

Molde II

FT

4 – 0

Raufoss II

4/24/2023

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 3Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Molde II68%

×Draw16%

Raufoss II16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Molde IIExpected goals in this matchRaufoss II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.10

1.51

Molde II

3.10

Raufoss II

1.51

Molde II creates 105% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 26 away

3.05

creates per match

0.88

2.14

allows per match

3.15

creates per match

Molde II

3.05

Raufoss II

0.88

allows per match

Molde II

2.14

Raufoss II

3.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Molde II+0.00on par

Raufoss II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde II ↓

Raufoss II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Molde II or draw

84%

Molde II or Raufoss II

84%

Draw or Raufoss II

32%

Winning margin

Molde II wins by 2+

49%

Raufoss II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Molde II 1+ goals

95%

Molde II 2+ goals

81%

Molde II 3+ goals

58%

Raufoss II 1+ goals

78%

Raufoss II 2+ goals

44%

Raufoss II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Molde II (draw refunded)

81%

Raufoss II (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde II at home — creates 3.05, concedes 2.14 · 44 matches

Raufoss II away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.15 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde II attack 3.05 + Raufoss II defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 3.10

Raufoss II attack 0.88 + Molde II defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Molde II scores more

68%

level

16%

Raufoss II scores more

16%

Molde II at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Molde II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff