Molde II 2–4 Hødd II: Result & Stats

Molde II

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Hødd II

M. Lovik 87'

G. Kjolstad Nyheim 77'

O. H. Nilsen 56'

D. Brandal 46'

J. Benjaminsen 29'

A. R. Borset 4' (OG)

10/16/2022

3. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 25Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Molde II58%

×Draw17%

Hødd II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Molde IIExpected goals in this matchHødd II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.96

1.94

Molde II

2.96

Hødd II

1.94

Molde II creates 53% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 26 away

3.05

creates per match

1.73

2.14

allows per match

2.88

creates per match

Molde II

3.05

Hødd II

1.73

allows per match

Molde II

2.14

Hødd II

2.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Molde II+0.00on par

Hødd II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde II ↓

Hødd II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–15%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Molde II or draw

75%

Molde II or Hødd II

83%

Draw or Hødd II

42%

Winning margin

Molde II wins by 2+

39%

Hødd II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Molde II 1+ goals

95%

Molde II 2+ goals

79%

Molde II 3+ goals

55%

Hødd II 1+ goals

86%

Hødd II 2+ goals

58%

Hødd II 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Molde II (draw refunded)

70%

Hødd II (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde II at home — creates 3.05, concedes 2.14 · 44 matches

Hødd II away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde II attack 3.05 + Hødd II defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.96

Hødd II attack 1.73 + Molde II defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Molde II scores more

58%

level

17%

Hødd II scores more

25%

Molde II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Molde II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

A. R. BorsetOwn goal

29'

J. Benjaminsen

46'

D. Brandal

56'

O. H. Nilsen

77'

G. Kjolstad Nyheim

87'

M. Lovik

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff