Molde II 1–1 Gjelleråsen: Result & Stats

Molde II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gjelleråsen

9/8/2024

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 20Årølia Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Molde II56%

×Draw20%

Gjelleråsen24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Molde IIExpected goals in this matchGjelleråsen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.44

Molde II

2.27

Gjelleråsen

1.44

Molde II creates 58% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

1.84

creates per match

0.92

1.95

allows per match

2.69

creates per match

Molde II

1.84

Gjelleråsen

0.92

allows per match

Molde II

1.95

Gjelleråsen

2.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Molde II+0.00on par

Gjelleråsen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde II ↓

Gjelleråsen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Molde II or draw

76%

Molde II or Gjelleråsen

80%

Draw or Gjelleråsen

44%

Winning margin

Molde II wins by 2+

35%

Gjelleråsen wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Molde II 1+ goals

90%

Molde II 2+ goals

66%

Molde II 3+ goals

39%

Gjelleråsen 1+ goals

76%

Gjelleråsen 2+ goals

42%

Gjelleråsen 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Molde II (draw refunded)

70%

Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Gjelleråsen away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde II attack 1.84 + Gjelleråsen defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.27

Gjelleråsen attack 0.92 + Molde II defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Molde II scores more

56%

level

20%

Gjelleråsen scores more

24%

Molde II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Molde II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff