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Molde II vs Funnefoss / Vormsund — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Molde II
Molde II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Funnefoss / Vormsund
Funnefoss / Vormsund
G. Nyheim 81'
F. A. Nyheim 70'
M. Solheim 21'
9/22/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 22Reknesbanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Molde II53%
×Draw20%
Funnefoss / Vormsund27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molde II
2.23
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.55

Molde II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Molde II
1.84
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.15

allows per match

Molde II
1.95
Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.62

finishing

Molde II+0.00on par
Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde II ↓

Funnefoss / Vormsund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Molde II or draw
73%
Molde II or Funnefoss / Vormsund
80%
Draw or Funnefoss / Vormsund
47%

Winning margin

Molde II wins by 2+
32%
Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Molde II 1+ goals
89%
Molde II 2+ goals
65%
Molde II 3+ goals
38%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals
79%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals
46%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Molde II (draw refunded)
66%
Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde II attack 1.84 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.23

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.15 + Molde II defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Molde II scores more
53%
level
20%
Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more
27%

Molde II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Molde II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
M. Solheim
41'
S. Westerheim
70'
F. A. Nyheim
81'
G. Nyheim

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Molde II vs Funnefoss / Vormsund

Molde II beat Funnefoss / Vormsund 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on September 22, 2024.

Goals: M. Solheim (21'), F. A. Nyheim (70'), G. Nyheim (81').

The match was played at Reknesbanen in Molde.