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Molde II vs Floro — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Molde II
Molde II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Floro
Floro
10/2/20223. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 23Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Molde II55%
×Draw19%
Floro27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molde II
2.62
Floro
1.82

Molde II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 26 away

creates per match

Molde II
3.05
Floro
1.50

allows per match

Molde II
2.14
Floro
2.19

finishing

Molde II+0.00on par
Floro+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde II ↓

Floro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Molde II or draw
73%
Molde II or Floro
81%
Draw or Floro
45%

Winning margin

Molde II wins by 2+
35%
Floro wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Molde II 1+ goals
93%
Molde II 2+ goals
73%
Molde II 3+ goals
48%
Floro 1+ goals
84%
Floro 2+ goals
54%
Floro 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Molde II (draw refunded)
67%
Floro (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde II at home — creates 3.05, concedes 2.14 · 44 matches

Floro away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde II attack 3.05 + Floro defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.62

Floro attack 1.50 + Molde II defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Molde II scores more
55%
level
19%
Floro scores more
27%

Molde II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Molde II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Molde II 1 – 0 Floro

Molde II beat Floro 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.