Mokpo City 2–0 Yangju Citizen: Result & Stats

Mokpo City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Yangju Citizen

6/12/2021

K3 League · Round 14Mokpo International Football Center Main

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Mokpo City49%

×Draw27%

Yangju Citizen24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mokpo CityExpected goals in this matchYangju Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.93

Mokpo City

1.45

Yangju Citizen

0.93

Mokpo City creates 56% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 54 away

1.20

creates per match

0.67

1.19

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Mokpo City

1.20

Yangju Citizen

0.67

allows per match

Mokpo City

1.19

Yangju Citizen

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mokpo City+0.00on par

Yangju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mokpo City ↓

Yangju Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mokpo City or draw

76%

Mokpo City or Yangju Citizen

73%

Draw or Yangju Citizen

51%

Winning margin

Mokpo City wins by 2+

24%

Yangju Citizen wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Mokpo City 1+ goals

77%

Mokpo City 2+ goals

42%

Mokpo City 3+ goals

18%

Yangju Citizen 1+ goals

61%

Yangju Citizen 2+ goals

24%

Yangju Citizen 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Mokpo City (draw refunded)

67%

Yangju Citizen (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mokpo City at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.19 · 110 matches

Yangju Citizen away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.70 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mokpo City attack 1.20 + Yangju Citizen defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.45

Yangju Citizen attack 0.67 + Mokpo City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mokpo City scores more

49%

level

27%

Yangju Citizen scores more

24%

Mokpo City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mokpo City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff