Mokpo City 2–1 Gangneung City: Result & Stats

Mokpo City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Gangneung City

Choi Bum-Kyung 86'

Y. Ryu 24'

Moon Chang-Jin 7'

10/26/2025

K3 League · Round 28Mokpo International Football Center Main

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Mokpo City39%

×Draw28%

Gangneung City33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mokpo CityExpected goals in this matchGangneung City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.14

Mokpo City

1.25

Gangneung City

1.14

Mokpo City creates 10% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 107 away

1.18

creates per match

1.08

1.20

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Mokpo City

1.18

Gangneung City

1.08

allows per match

Mokpo City

1.20

Gangneung City

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mokpo City+0.00on par

Gangneung City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mokpo City ↓

Gangneung City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mokpo City or draw

67%

Mokpo City or Gangneung City

72%

Draw or Gangneung City

61%

Winning margin

Mokpo City wins by 2+

17%

Gangneung City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mokpo City 1+ goals

71%

Mokpo City 2+ goals

36%

Mokpo City 3+ goals

13%

Gangneung City 1+ goals

68%

Gangneung City 2+ goals

32%

Gangneung City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mokpo City (draw refunded)

54%

Gangneung City (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mokpo City at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.20 · 109 matches

Gangneung City away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.31 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mokpo City attack 1.18 + Gangneung City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Gangneung City attack 1.08 + Mokpo City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mokpo City scores more

39%

level

28%

Gangneung City scores more

33%

Mokpo City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mokpo City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Moon Chang-Jin

24'

Y. Ryu

86'

Choi Bum-Kyung

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff