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Mokpo City vs Dangjin Citizen — K3 League 2026

Mokpo City
Mokpo City
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Dangjin Citizen
Dangjin Citizen
Ahn Kyeong-Chan 54'
Y. Ryu 89'
D. Seo 82'
Han Jun-young 35'
4/4/2026K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Mokpo City46%
×Draw26%
Dangjin Citizen28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mokpo City
1.44
Dangjin Citizen
1.06

Mokpo City creates 36% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 26 away

creates per match

Mokpo City
1.18
Dangjin Citizen
0.92

allows per match

Mokpo City
1.20
Dangjin Citizen
1.69

finishing

Mokpo City+0.00on par
Dangjin Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mokpo City ↓

Dangjin Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mokpo City or draw
72%
Mokpo City or Dangjin Citizen
74%
Draw or Dangjin Citizen
54%

Winning margin

Mokpo City wins by 2+
22%
Dangjin Citizen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mokpo City 1+ goals
76%
Mokpo City 2+ goals
42%
Mokpo City 3+ goals
18%
Dangjin Citizen 1+ goals
65%
Dangjin Citizen 2+ goals
29%
Dangjin Citizen 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mokpo City (draw refunded)
62%
Dangjin Citizen (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mokpo City at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.20 · 109 matches

Dangjin Citizen away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mokpo City attack 1.18 + Dangjin Citizen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.44

Dangjin Citizen attack 0.92 + Mokpo City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mokpo City scores more
46%
level
26%
Dangjin Citizen scores more
28%

Mokpo City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mokpo City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
Han Jun-young
54'
Ahn Kyeong-Chan
82'
D. Seo
89'
Y. Ryu
Mokpo
Dangjin
Cho Duk-Jae
Manager: Cho Duk-Jae
Han Sang-Min
Manager: Han Sang-Min

Match Recap: Mokpo City vs Dangjin Citizen

Dangjin Citizen beat Mokpo City 3-1 in K3 League on April 4, 2026.

Goals: Han Jun-young (35'), Ahn Kyeong-Chan (54'), D. Seo (82'), Y. Ryu (89').