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Moknine vs Stade Gabesien — Ligue 2 2020

Moknine
Moknine
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Stade Gabesien
Stade Gabesien
3/18/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 14Stade Mongi-Slim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Moknine46%
×Draw30%
Stade Gabesien23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moknine
1.20
Stade Gabesien
0.76

Moknine creates 58% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 60 away

creates per match

Moknine
1.27
Stade Gabesien
0.73

allows per match

Moknine
0.78
Stade Gabesien
1.12

finishing

Moknine+0.00on par
Stade Gabesien+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moknine ↓

Stade Gabesien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Moknine or draw
77%
Moknine or Stade Gabesien
70%
Draw or Stade Gabesien
54%

Winning margin

Moknine wins by 2+
21%
Stade Gabesien wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Moknine 1+ goals
70%
Moknine 2+ goals
34%
Moknine 3+ goals
12%
Stade Gabesien 1+ goals
53%
Stade Gabesien 2+ goals
18%
Stade Gabesien 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Moknine (draw refunded)
66%
Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moknine at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.78 · 49 matches

Stade Gabesien away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.12 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moknine attack 1.27 + Stade Gabesien defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Stade Gabesien attack 0.73 + Moknine defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Moknine scores more
46%
level
30%
Stade Gabesien scores more
23%

Moknine at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Moknine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moknine vs Stade Gabesien

Moknine beat Stade Gabesien 3-1 in Ligue 2 on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Mongi-Slim in Moknine.