Moknine 2–0 SS Sfaxien: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Moknine

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SS Sfaxien

5/13/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 20Stade Mongi-Slim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Moknine56%

×Draw27%

SS Sfaxien18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoknineExpected goals in this matchSS Sfaxien

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.69

Moknine

1.46

SS Sfaxien

0.69

Moknine creates 112% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 22 away

1.27

creates per match

0.59

0.78

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Moknine

1.27

SS Sfaxien

0.59

allows per match

Moknine

0.78

SS Sfaxien

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moknine+0.00on par

SS Sfaxien+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moknine ↓

SS Sfaxien →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Moknine or draw

82%

Moknine or SS Sfaxien

73%

Draw or SS Sfaxien

44%

Winning margin

Moknine wins by 2+

28%

SS Sfaxien wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Moknine 1+ goals

77%

Moknine 2+ goals

43%

Moknine 3+ goals

18%

SS Sfaxien 1+ goals

50%

SS Sfaxien 2+ goals

15%

SS Sfaxien 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Moknine (draw refunded)

76%

SS Sfaxien (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moknine at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.78 · 49 matches

SS Sfaxien away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moknine attack 1.27 + SS Sfaxien defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

SS Sfaxien attack 0.59 + Moknine defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Moknine scores more

56%

level

27%

SS Sfaxien scores more

18%

Moknine at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Moknine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff