Moknine 0–2 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer: Result & Stats

Moknine

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

1/18/2025

Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundStade Mongi-Slim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Moknine11%

×Draw22%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoknineExpected goals in this matchProgrès Sakiet Eddaïer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.58

1.79

Moknine

0.58

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

1.79

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer creates 209% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.67

creates per match

1.25

2.33

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Moknine

0.67

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

1.25

allows per match

Moknine

2.33

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moknine+0.00on par

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moknine ↓

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer →

0–09%

0–117%

0–215%

0–39%

0–44%

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3–00%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Moknine or draw

33%

Moknine or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

78%

Draw or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

89%

Winning margin

Moknine wins by 2+

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Moknine 1+ goals

44%

Moknine 2+ goals

12%

Moknine 3+ goals

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1+ goals

83%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2+ goals

53%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Moknine (draw refunded)

15%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Moknine at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Moknine attack 0.67 + Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.58

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack 1.25 + Moknine defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Moknine scores more

11%

level

22%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scores more

67%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff