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Moknine vs Menzel Bourguiba — Ligue 2 2020

Moknine
Moknine
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Menzel Bourguiba
Menzel Bourguiba
2/8/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 14Stade Mongi-Slim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Moknine62%
×Draw25%
Menzel Bourguiba13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moknine
1.54
Menzel Bourguiba
0.53

Moknine creates 191% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 26 away

creates per match

Moknine
1.27
Menzel Bourguiba
0.27

allows per match

Moknine
0.78
Menzel Bourguiba
1.81

finishing

Moknine+0.00on par
Menzel Bourguiba+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moknine ↓

Menzel Bourguiba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Moknine or draw
87%
Moknine or Menzel Bourguiba
75%
Draw or Menzel Bourguiba
38%

Winning margin

Moknine wins by 2+
34%
Menzel Bourguiba wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Moknine 1+ goals
79%
Moknine 2+ goals
45%
Moknine 3+ goals
20%
Menzel Bourguiba 1+ goals
41%
Menzel Bourguiba 2+ goals
10%
Menzel Bourguiba 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Moknine (draw refunded)
83%
Menzel Bourguiba (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moknine at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.78 · 49 matches

Menzel Bourguiba away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moknine attack 1.27 + Menzel Bourguiba defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.54

Menzel Bourguiba attack 0.27 + Moknine defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Moknine scores more
62%
level
25%
Menzel Bourguiba scores more
13%

Moknine at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Moknine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moknine vs Menzel Bourguiba

Moknine and Menzel Bourguiba drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Mongi-Slim in Moknine.