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Moknine vs Kalaâ Sport — Ligue 2 2020

Moknine
Moknine
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kalaâ Sport
Kalaâ Sport
3/4/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 12Stade Mongi-Slim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Moknine52%
×Draw28%
Kalaâ Sport20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moknine
1.39
Kalaâ Sport
0.74

Moknine creates 88% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 61 away

creates per match

Moknine
1.27
Kalaâ Sport
0.70

allows per match

Moknine
0.78
Kalaâ Sport
1.51

finishing

Moknine+0.00on par
Kalaâ Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moknine ↓

Kalaâ Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Moknine or draw
80%
Moknine or Kalaâ Sport
72%
Draw or Kalaâ Sport
48%

Winning margin

Moknine wins by 2+
26%
Kalaâ Sport wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Moknine 1+ goals
75%
Moknine 2+ goals
40%
Moknine 3+ goals
16%
Kalaâ Sport 1+ goals
52%
Kalaâ Sport 2+ goals
17%
Kalaâ Sport 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Moknine (draw refunded)
72%
Kalaâ Sport (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moknine at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.78 · 49 matches

Kalaâ Sport away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.51 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moknine attack 1.27 + Kalaâ Sport defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.39

Kalaâ Sport attack 0.70 + Moknine defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Moknine scores more
52%
level
28%
Kalaâ Sport scores more
20%

Moknine at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Moknine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Moknine 2–0 Kalaâ Sport

Moknine beat Kalaâ Sport 2-0 in Ligue 2 on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Mongi-Slim in Moknine.