Moknine 4–0 EO Sidi Bouzid: Result & Stats

Moknine

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

EO Sidi Bouzid

9/21/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 1Stade Mongi-Slim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Moknine53%

×Draw27%

EO Sidi Bouzid20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoknineExpected goals in this matchEO Sidi Bouzid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.78

Moknine

1.46

EO Sidi Bouzid

0.78

Moknine creates 87% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 49 away

1.27

creates per match

0.78

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Moknine

1.27

EO Sidi Bouzid

0.78

allows per match

Moknine

0.78

EO Sidi Bouzid

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moknine+0.00on par

EO Sidi Bouzid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moknine ↓

EO Sidi Bouzid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Moknine or draw

80%

Moknine or EO Sidi Bouzid

73%

Draw or EO Sidi Bouzid

47%

Winning margin

Moknine wins by 2+

27%

EO Sidi Bouzid wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Moknine 1+ goals

77%

Moknine 2+ goals

43%

Moknine 3+ goals

18%

EO Sidi Bouzid 1+ goals

54%

EO Sidi Bouzid 2+ goals

18%

EO Sidi Bouzid 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Moknine (draw refunded)

73%

EO Sidi Bouzid (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moknine at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.78 · 49 matches

EO Sidi Bouzid away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.65 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moknine attack 1.27 + EO Sidi Bouzid defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.46

EO Sidi Bouzid attack 0.78 + Moknine defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Moknine scores more

53%

level

27%

EO Sidi Bouzid scores more

20%

Moknine at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Moknine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff