Moknine 1–1 EGS Gafsa: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Moknine

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

EGS Gafsa

5/27/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 22Stade Mongi-Slim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Moknine47%

×Draw29%

EGS Gafsa24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoknineExpected goals in this matchEGS Gafsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.83

Moknine

1.27

EGS Gafsa

0.83

Moknine creates 53% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 36 away

1.27

creates per match

0.89

0.78

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Moknine

1.27

EGS Gafsa

0.89

allows per match

Moknine

0.78

EGS Gafsa

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moknine+0.00on par

EGS Gafsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moknine ↓

EGS Gafsa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Moknine or draw

76%

Moknine or EGS Gafsa

71%

Draw or EGS Gafsa

53%

Winning margin

Moknine wins by 2+

21%

EGS Gafsa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Moknine 1+ goals

72%

Moknine 2+ goals

36%

Moknine 3+ goals

14%

EGS Gafsa 1+ goals

56%

EGS Gafsa 2+ goals

20%

EGS Gafsa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Moknine (draw refunded)

66%

EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moknine at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.78 · 49 matches

EGS Gafsa away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moknine attack 1.27 + EGS Gafsa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

EGS Gafsa attack 0.89 + Moknine defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Moknine scores more

47%

level

29%

EGS Gafsa scores more

24%

Moknine at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Moknine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff