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Moknine vs AS Gabes — Ligue 2 2020

Moknine
Moknine
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
AS Gabes
AS Gabes
2/10/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 15Stade Mongi-Slim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Moknine47%
×Draw29%
AS Gabes24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moknine
1.27
AS Gabes
0.83

Moknine creates 53% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 36 away

creates per match

Moknine
1.27
AS Gabes
0.89

allows per match

Moknine
0.78
AS Gabes
1.28

finishing

Moknine+0.00on par
AS Gabes+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moknine ↓

AS Gabes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Moknine or draw
76%
Moknine or AS Gabes
71%
Draw or AS Gabes
53%

Winning margin

Moknine wins by 2+
21%
AS Gabes wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Moknine 1+ goals
72%
Moknine 2+ goals
36%
Moknine 3+ goals
14%
AS Gabes 1+ goals
56%
AS Gabes 2+ goals
20%
AS Gabes 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Moknine (draw refunded)
66%
AS Gabes (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moknine at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.78 · 49 matches

AS Gabes away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moknine attack 1.27 + AS Gabes defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

AS Gabes attack 0.89 + Moknine defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Moknine scores more
47%
level
29%
AS Gabes scores more
24%

Moknine at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Moknine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moknine vs AS Gabes

Moknine beat AS Gabes 3-2 in Ligue 2 on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Mongi-Slim in Moknine.