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Mojados vs Ciudad Rodrigo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Mojados
Mojados
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ciudad Rodrigo
Ciudad Rodrigo
1/4/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 18Campo de Futbol Mojados

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Mojados47%
×Draw26%
Ciudad Rodrigo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mojados
1.48
Ciudad Rodrigo
1.04

Mojados creates 42% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 34 away

creates per match

Mojados
0.97
Ciudad Rodrigo
0.74

allows per match

Mojados
1.34
Ciudad Rodrigo
2.00

finishing

Mojados+0.00on par
Ciudad Rodrigo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mojados ↓

Ciudad Rodrigo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mojados or draw
73%
Mojados or Ciudad Rodrigo
74%
Draw or Ciudad Rodrigo
53%

Winning margin

Mojados wins by 2+
24%
Ciudad Rodrigo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mojados 1+ goals
77%
Mojados 2+ goals
43%
Mojados 3+ goals
19%
Ciudad Rodrigo 1+ goals
65%
Ciudad Rodrigo 2+ goals
28%
Ciudad Rodrigo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mojados (draw refunded)
64%
Ciudad Rodrigo (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mojados at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

Ciudad Rodrigo away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mojados attack 0.97 + Ciudad Rodrigo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ciudad Rodrigo attack 0.74 + Mojados defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mojados scores more
47%
level
26%
Ciudad Rodrigo scores more
27%

Mojados at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mojados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mojados vs Ciudad Rodrigo

Mojados beat Ciudad Rodrigo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 4, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol Mojados in Mojados.