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MOIK vs Karvan — Birinci Dasta 2019

MOIK
MOIK
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Karvan
Karvan
2/8/2024Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 13Binə qəsəbə stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

MOIK34%
×Draw23%
Karvan43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MOIK
1.50
Karvan
1.71

Karvan creates 14% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 26 away

creates per match

MOIK
1.49
Karvan
1.88

allows per match

MOIK
1.53
Karvan
1.50

finishing

MOIK+0.00on par
Karvan+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MOIK ↓

Karvan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

MOIK or draw
57%
MOIK or Karvan
77%
Draw or Karvan
66%

Winning margin

MOIK wins by 2+
16%
Karvan wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

MOIK 1+ goals
78%
MOIK 2+ goals
44%
MOIK 3+ goals
19%
Karvan 1+ goals
82%
Karvan 2+ goals
51%
Karvan 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

MOIK (draw refunded)
44%
Karvan (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MOIK at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.53 · 88 matches

Karvan away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MOIK attack 1.49 + Karvan defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Karvan attack 1.88 + MOIK defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

MOIK scores more
34%
level
23%
Karvan scores more
43%

Karvan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Karvan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MOIK 0 – 1 Karvan

Karvan beat MOIK 1-0 in Birinci Dasta on February 8, 2024.

The match was played at Binə qəsəbə stadionu in Binə.