MOIK 1–3 Difai Ağsu: Result & Stats | Birinci Dasta

MOIK

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Difai Ağsu

3/27/2025

Birinci Dasta · Round 19Binə qəsəbə stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

MOIK47%

×Draw24%

Difai Ağsu30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MOIKExpected goals in this matchDifai Ağsu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.34

MOIK

1.73

Difai Ağsu

1.34

MOIK creates 29% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 40 away

1.49

creates per match

1.15

1.53

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

MOIK

1.49

Difai Ağsu

1.15

allows per match

MOIK

1.53

Difai Ağsu

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MOIK+0.00on par

Difai Ağsu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MOIK ↓

Difai Ağsu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

MOIK or draw

70%

MOIK or Difai Ağsu

76%

Draw or Difai Ağsu

53%

Winning margin

MOIK wins by 2+

25%

Difai Ağsu wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

MOIK 1+ goals

82%

MOIK 2+ goals

52%

MOIK 3+ goals

25%

Difai Ağsu 1+ goals

74%

Difai Ağsu 2+ goals

39%

Difai Ağsu 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

MOIK (draw refunded)

61%

Difai Ağsu (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MOIK at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.53 · 88 matches

Difai Ağsu away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.98 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MOIK attack 1.49 + Difai Ağsu defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.73

Difai Ağsu attack 1.15 + MOIK defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

MOIK scores more

47%

level

24%

Difai Ağsu scores more

30%

MOIK at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "MOIK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff