Mohun Bagan 4–0 TRAU: Result & Stats | I-League

Mohun Bagan

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

TRAU

12/11/2019

I-League · Round 3Kalyani Stadium (Kalyani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Mohun Bagan61%

×Draw20%

TRAU19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mohun BaganExpected goals in this matchTRAU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.14

Mohun Bagan

2.19

TRAU

1.14

Mohun Bagan creates 92% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 44 away

2.22

creates per match

1.27

1.00

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Mohun Bagan

2.22

TRAU

1.27

allows per match

Mohun Bagan

1.00

TRAU

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mohun Bagan+0.00on par

TRAU+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohun Bagan ↓

TRAU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Mohun Bagan or draw

81%

Mohun Bagan or TRAU

80%

Draw or TRAU

39%

Winning margin

Mohun Bagan wins by 2+

38%

TRAU wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Mohun Bagan 1+ goals

89%

Mohun Bagan 2+ goals

64%

Mohun Bagan 3+ goals

37%

TRAU 1+ goals

68%

TRAU 2+ goals

32%

TRAU 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)

76%

TRAU (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohun Bagan at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

TRAU away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.16 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohun Bagan attack 2.22 + TRAU defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.19

TRAU attack 1.27 + Mohun Bagan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Mohun Bagan scores more

61%

level

20%

TRAU scores more

19%

Mohun Bagan at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Mohun Bagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff