Mohun Bagan 1–0 Indian Arrows: Result & Stats

Mohun Bagan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Indian Arrows

1/9/2020

I-League · Round 7Kalyani Stadium (Kalyani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Mohun Bagan64%

×Draw22%

Indian Arrows14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mohun BaganExpected goals in this matchIndian Arrows

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.71

Mohun Bagan

1.84

Indian Arrows

0.71

Mohun Bagan creates 159% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 26 away

2.22

creates per match

0.42

1.00

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Mohun Bagan

2.22

Indian Arrows

0.42

allows per match

Mohun Bagan

1.00

Indian Arrows

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mohun Bagan+0.00on par

Indian Arrows+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohun Bagan ↓

Indian Arrows →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mohun Bagan or draw

86%

Mohun Bagan or Indian Arrows

78%

Draw or Indian Arrows

36%

Winning margin

Mohun Bagan wins by 2+

38%

Indian Arrows wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Mohun Bagan 1+ goals

84%

Mohun Bagan 2+ goals

55%

Mohun Bagan 3+ goals

28%

Indian Arrows 1+ goals

51%

Indian Arrows 2+ goals

16%

Indian Arrows 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)

82%

Indian Arrows (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohun Bagan at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Indian Arrows away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohun Bagan attack 2.22 + Indian Arrows defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.84

Indian Arrows attack 0.42 + Mohun Bagan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Mohun Bagan scores more

64%

level

22%

Indian Arrows scores more

14%

Mohun Bagan at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Mohun Bagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff