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Mohun Bagan vs Churchill Brothers — I-League 2019

Mohun Bagan
Mohun Bagan
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Churchill Brothers
Churchill Brothers
12/8/2019I-LeagueI-League · Round 2Kalyani Stadium (Kalyani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Mohun Bagan50%
×Draw23%
Churchill Brothers27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mohun Bagan
1.77
Churchill Brothers
1.24

Mohun Bagan creates 43% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 58 away

creates per match

Mohun Bagan
2.22
Churchill Brothers
1.48

allows per match

Mohun Bagan
1.00
Churchill Brothers
1.31

finishing

Mohun Bagan+0.00on par
Churchill Brothers+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohun Bagan ↓

Churchill Brothers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Mohun Bagan or draw
73%
Mohun Bagan or Churchill Brothers
77%
Draw or Churchill Brothers
50%

Winning margin

Mohun Bagan wins by 2+
27%
Churchill Brothers wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mohun Bagan 1+ goals
83%
Mohun Bagan 2+ goals
53%
Mohun Bagan 3+ goals
26%
Churchill Brothers 1+ goals
71%
Churchill Brothers 2+ goals
35%
Churchill Brothers 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)
65%
Churchill Brothers (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohun Bagan at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Churchill Brothers away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.31 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohun Bagan attack 2.22 + Churchill Brothers defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.77

Churchill Brothers attack 1.48 + Mohun Bagan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mohun Bagan scores more
50%
level
23%
Churchill Brothers scores more
27%

Mohun Bagan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mohun Bagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mohun Bagan vs Churchill Brothers

Churchill Brothers beat Mohun Bagan 4-2 in I-League on December 8, 2019.

The match was played at Kalyani Stadium (Kalyani).