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Mohammedia vs Radès — Ligue 2 2020

Mohammedia
Mohammedia
FT
7 – 7
Radès
Radès
3/27/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 9Mhamdia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Mohammedia51%
×Draw26%
Radès24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mohammedia
1.54
Radès
0.97

Mohammedia creates 59% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 47 away

creates per match

Mohammedia
1.45
Radès
0.74

allows per match

Mohammedia
1.20
Radès
1.62

finishing

Mohammedia+0.00on par
Radès+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohammedia ↓

Radès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mohammedia or draw
76%
Mohammedia or Radès
74%
Draw or Radès
49%

Winning margin

Mohammedia wins by 2+
26%
Radès wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mohammedia 1+ goals
79%
Mohammedia 2+ goals
45%
Mohammedia 3+ goals
20%
Radès 1+ goals
62%
Radès 2+ goals
25%
Radès 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mohammedia (draw refunded)
68%
Radès (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohammedia at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Radès away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.62 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohammedia attack 1.45 + Radès defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.54

Radès attack 0.74 + Mohammedia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mohammedia scores more
51%
level
26%
Radès scores more
24%

Mohammedia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mohammedia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Mohammedia 7–7 Radès

Mohammedia and Radès drew 7-7 in Ligue 2 on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at Mhamdia Stadium in Mohamedia.