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Mohammedia vs Hammam-Sousse — Ligue 2 2020

Mohammedia
Mohammedia
FT
2 – 2
Hammam-Sousse
Hammam-Sousse
1/31/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 1Mhamdia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Mohammedia40%
×Draw27%
Hammam-Sousse33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mohammedia
1.34
Hammam-Sousse
1.18

Mohammedia creates 14% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 44 away

creates per match

Mohammedia
1.45
Hammam-Sousse
1.16

allows per match

Mohammedia
1.20
Hammam-Sousse
1.23

finishing

Mohammedia+0.00on par
Hammam-Sousse+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohammedia ↓

Hammam-Sousse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mohammedia or draw
67%
Mohammedia or Hammam-Sousse
73%
Draw or Hammam-Sousse
60%

Winning margin

Mohammedia wins by 2+
19%
Hammam-Sousse wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mohammedia 1+ goals
74%
Mohammedia 2+ goals
39%
Mohammedia 3+ goals
15%
Hammam-Sousse 1+ goals
69%
Hammam-Sousse 2+ goals
33%
Hammam-Sousse 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mohammedia (draw refunded)
55%
Hammam-Sousse (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohammedia at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Hammam-Sousse away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohammedia attack 1.45 + Hammam-Sousse defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.34

Hammam-Sousse attack 1.16 + Mohammedia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mohammedia scores more
40%
level
27%
Hammam-Sousse scores more
33%

Mohammedia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mohammedia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mohammedia vs Hammam-Sousse

Mohammedia and Hammam-Sousse drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on January 31, 2021.

The match was played at Mhamdia Stadium in Mohamedia.