Mohammedia 4–1 Bembla: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Mohammedia

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bembla

4/2/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 16Stade Mhamdia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Mohammedia59%

×Draw23%

Bembla18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MohammediaExpected goals in this matchBembla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.88

Mohammedia

1.79

Bembla

0.88

Mohammedia creates 103% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 16 away

1.45

creates per match

0.56

1.20

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Mohammedia

1.45

Bembla

0.56

allows per match

Mohammedia

1.20

Bembla

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mohammedia+0.00on par

Bembla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohammedia ↓

Bembla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mohammedia or draw

82%

Mohammedia or Bembla

77%

Draw or Bembla

41%

Winning margin

Mohammedia wins by 2+

34%

Bembla wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Mohammedia 1+ goals

83%

Mohammedia 2+ goals

53%

Mohammedia 3+ goals

26%

Bembla 1+ goals

59%

Bembla 2+ goals

22%

Bembla 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Mohammedia (draw refunded)

76%

Bembla (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohammedia at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Bembla away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohammedia attack 1.45 + Bembla defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.79

Bembla attack 0.56 + Mohammedia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Mohammedia scores more

59%

level

23%

Bembla scores more

18%

Mohammedia at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mohammedia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff