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Mohammedan vs Sudeva — I-League 2019

Mohammedan
Mohammedan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sudeva
Sudeva
12/27/2021I-LeagueI-League · Round 1Naihati Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Mohammedan52%
×Draw23%
Sudeva25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mohammedan
1.88
Sudeva
1.23

Mohammedan creates 53% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 27 away

creates per match

Mohammedan
1.90
Sudeva
1.15

allows per match

Mohammedan
1.32
Sudeva
1.85

finishing

Mohammedan+0.00on par
Sudeva+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohammedan ↓

Sudeva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Mohammedan or draw
75%
Mohammedan or Sudeva
77%
Draw or Sudeva
48%

Winning margin

Mohammedan wins by 2+
30%
Sudeva wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mohammedan 1+ goals
85%
Mohammedan 2+ goals
56%
Mohammedan 3+ goals
29%
Sudeva 1+ goals
71%
Sudeva 2+ goals
35%
Sudeva 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mohammedan (draw refunded)
68%
Sudeva (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohammedan at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.32 · 41 matches

Sudeva away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohammedan attack 1.90 + Sudeva defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.88

Sudeva attack 1.15 + Mohammedan defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mohammedan scores more
52%
level
23%
Sudeva scores more
25%

Mohammedan at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mohammedan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: Mohammedan 2–1 Sudeva

Mohammedan beat Sudeva 2-1 in I-League on December 27, 2021.

The match was played at Naihati Stadium in Naihati.