Mohammedan 2–2 Kenkre: Result & Stats | I-League

Mohammedan

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Kenkre

12/13/2022

I-League · Round 7Kishore Bharati Krirangan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Mohammedan55%

×Draw23%

Kenkre22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MohammedanExpected goals in this matchKenkre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.02

Mohammedan

1.78

Kenkre

1.02

Mohammedan creates 75% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 24 away

1.90

creates per match

0.71

1.32

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Mohammedan

1.90

Kenkre

0.71

allows per match

Mohammedan

1.32

Kenkre

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mohammedan+0.00on par

Kenkre+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohammedan ↓

Kenkre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Mohammedan or draw

78%

Mohammedan or Kenkre

77%

Draw or Kenkre

45%

Winning margin

Mohammedan wins by 2+

31%

Kenkre wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Mohammedan 1+ goals

83%

Mohammedan 2+ goals

53%

Mohammedan 3+ goals

26%

Kenkre 1+ goals

64%

Kenkre 2+ goals

27%

Kenkre 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mohammedan (draw refunded)

72%

Kenkre (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohammedan at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.32 · 41 matches

Kenkre away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.67 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohammedan attack 1.90 + Kenkre defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

Kenkre attack 0.71 + Mohammedan defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mohammedan scores more

55%

level

23%

Kenkre scores more

22%

Mohammedan at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mohammedan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff