Mohammedan 2–0 Churchill Brothers: Result & Stats

Mohammedan

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Churchill Brothers

5/6/2022

I-League · Championship Round - 5Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Mohammedan42%

×Draw24%

Churchill Brothers34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MohammedanExpected goals in this matchChurchill Brothers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.40

Mohammedan

1.60

Churchill Brothers

1.40

Mohammedan creates 14% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 58 away

1.90

creates per match

1.48

1.32

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Mohammedan

1.90

Churchill Brothers

1.48

allows per match

Mohammedan

1.32

Churchill Brothers

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mohammedan+0.00on par

Churchill Brothers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohammedan ↓

Churchill Brothers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Mohammedan or draw

66%

Mohammedan or Churchill Brothers

76%

Draw or Churchill Brothers

58%

Winning margin

Mohammedan wins by 2+

21%

Churchill Brothers wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mohammedan 1+ goals

80%

Mohammedan 2+ goals

47%

Mohammedan 3+ goals

22%

Churchill Brothers 1+ goals

75%

Churchill Brothers 2+ goals

41%

Churchill Brothers 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Mohammedan (draw refunded)

56%

Churchill Brothers (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohammedan at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.32 · 41 matches

Churchill Brothers away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.31 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohammedan attack 1.90 + Churchill Brothers defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.60

Churchill Brothers attack 1.48 + Mohammedan defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mohammedan scores more

42%

level

24%

Churchill Brothers scores more

34%

Mohammedan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mohammedan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff