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Mohammedan Dhaka vs Abahani — Premier League 2019

Mohammedan Dhaka
Mohammedan Dhaka
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Abahani
Abahani
2/23/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Mymensingh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Mohammedan Dhaka36%
×Draw23%
Abahani40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mohammedan Dhaka
1.57
Abahani
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 73 away

creates per match

Mohammedan Dhaka
1.97
Abahani
2.16

allows per match

Mohammedan Dhaka
1.16
Abahani
1.18

finishing

Mohammedan Dhaka+0.00on par
Abahani+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohammedan Dhaka ↓

Abahani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Mohammedan Dhaka or draw
60%
Mohammedan Dhaka or Abahani
77%
Draw or Abahani
64%

Winning margin

Mohammedan Dhaka wins by 2+
18%
Abahani wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Mohammedan Dhaka 1+ goals
79%
Mohammedan Dhaka 2+ goals
46%
Mohammedan Dhaka 3+ goals
21%
Abahani 1+ goals
81%
Abahani 2+ goals
49%
Abahani 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Mohammedan Dhaka (draw refunded)
48%
Abahani (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohammedan Dhaka at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.16 · 73 matches

Abahani away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.18 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohammedan Dhaka attack 1.97 + Abahani defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.57

Abahani attack 2.16 + Mohammedan Dhaka defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mohammedan Dhaka scores more
36%
level
23%
Abahani scores more
40%

Abahani at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Abahani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Mohammedan Dhaka 2–2 Abahani

Mohammedan Dhaka and Abahani drew 2-2 in Premier League on February 23, 2024.

The match was played at Mymensingh Stadium in Mymensingh.