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Abahani vs Mohammedan Dhaka — Federation Cup 2020

Abahani
Abahani
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mohammedan Dhaka
Mohammedan Dhaka
1/7/2025Federation CupFederation Cup · Group Stage - 2Comilla Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Abahani54%
×Draw24%
Mohammedan Dhaka22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abahani
1.73
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.02

Abahani creates 70% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

creates per match

Abahani
2.27
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.64

allows per match

Abahani
0.40
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.18

finishing

Abahani+0.00on par
Mohammedan Dhaka+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abahani ↓

Mohammedan Dhaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Abahani or draw
78%
Abahani or Mohammedan Dhaka
76%
Draw or Mohammedan Dhaka
46%

Winning margin

Abahani wins by 2+
30%
Mohammedan Dhaka wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Abahani 1+ goals
82%
Abahani 2+ goals
52%
Abahani 3+ goals
25%
Mohammedan Dhaka 1+ goals
64%
Mohammedan Dhaka 2+ goals
27%
Mohammedan Dhaka 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Abahani (draw refunded)
71%
Mohammedan Dhaka (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abahani at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.40 · 15 matches

Mohammedan Dhaka away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abahani attack 2.27 + Mohammedan Dhaka defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.73

Mohammedan Dhaka attack 1.64 + Abahani defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Abahani scores more
54%
level
24%
Mohammedan Dhaka scores more
22%

Abahani at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Abahani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Abahani vs Mohammedan Dhaka

Abahani beat Mohammedan Dhaka 1-0 in Federation Cup on January 7, 2025.

The match was played at Comilla Stadium in Comilla.