Mohácsi TE 1–1 Nagykanizsai ULE: Result & Stats

Mohácsi TE

FT

1 – 1

Nagykanizsai ULE

3/10/2024

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 19Újvárosi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mohácsi TE30%

×Draw25%

Nagykanizsai ULE45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mohácsi TEExpected goals in this matchNagykanizsai ULE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.54

Mohácsi TE

1.22

Nagykanizsai ULE

1.54

Nagykanizsai ULE creates 26% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 111 away

1.07

creates per match

1.95

1.13

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Mohácsi TE

1.07

Nagykanizsai ULE

1.95

allows per match

Mohácsi TE

1.13

Nagykanizsai ULE

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mohácsi TE+0.00on par

Nagykanizsai ULE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohácsi TE ↓

Nagykanizsai ULE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Mohácsi TE or draw

55%

Mohácsi TE or Nagykanizsai ULE

75%

Draw or Nagykanizsai ULE

70%

Winning margin

Mohácsi TE wins by 2+

13%

Nagykanizsai ULE wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Mohácsi TE 1+ goals

70%

Mohácsi TE 2+ goals

34%

Mohácsi TE 3+ goals

12%

Nagykanizsai ULE 1+ goals

79%

Nagykanizsai ULE 2+ goals

45%

Nagykanizsai ULE 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Mohácsi TE (draw refunded)

40%

Nagykanizsai ULE (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohácsi TE at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Nagykanizsai ULE away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohácsi TE attack 1.07 + Nagykanizsai ULE defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.22

Nagykanizsai ULE attack 1.95 + Mohácsi TE defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mohácsi TE scores more

30%

level

25%

Nagykanizsai ULE scores more

45%

Nagykanizsai ULE at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nagykanizsai ULE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff