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Mohácsi TE vs Dunaföldvár — NB III - Southwest 2019

Mohácsi TE
Mohácsi TE
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Dunaföldvár
Dunaföldvár
8/13/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 3Újvárosi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mohácsi TE58%
×Draw21%
Dunaföldvár21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mohácsi TE
2.08
Dunaföldvár
1.18

Mohácsi TE creates 76% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Mohácsi TE
1.07
Dunaföldvár
1.23

allows per match

Mohácsi TE
1.13
Dunaföldvár
3.10

finishing

Mohácsi TE+0.00on par
Dunaföldvár+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohácsi TE ↓

Dunaföldvár →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Mohácsi TE or draw
79%
Mohácsi TE or Dunaföldvár
79%
Draw or Dunaföldvár
42%

Winning margin

Mohácsi TE wins by 2+
35%
Dunaföldvár wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mohácsi TE 1+ goals
87%
Mohácsi TE 2+ goals
61%
Mohácsi TE 3+ goals
34%
Dunaföldvár 1+ goals
69%
Dunaföldvár 2+ goals
33%
Dunaföldvár 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mohácsi TE (draw refunded)
73%
Dunaföldvár (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohácsi TE at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Dunaföldvár away — creates 1.23, concedes 3.10 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohácsi TE attack 1.07 + Dunaföldvár defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.08

Dunaföldvár attack 1.23 + Mohácsi TE defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Mohácsi TE scores more
58%
level
21%
Dunaföldvár scores more
21%

Mohácsi TE at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Mohácsi TE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Mohácsi TE 0–3 Dunaföldvár

Dunaföldvár beat Mohácsi TE 3-0 in NB III - Southwest on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Újvárosi Stadion in Mohács.